If I make the call now and say the Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention, can I get grandfathered in as the first to report it when it happens? Here, I’ll even make the graphic.
Listen, Minnesota’s been off to a dismal start. They went 3-7 in their first ten games of the year, and as of writing this they’ve only improved slightly to 8-15. A playoff run, and certainly a deep one, seems almost out of the question.
But sometimes, in the rarest moments, the things that seem impossible end up happening.
In 2009, Minnesota was in a similar shape; going 4-6 through their first ten games and sitting at 11-11 through the first month of play. Then, this happened:
So, as an exercise in infinite hope, let’s take a look at how those Twins got to the postseason, and maybe, how these ones can pull the same rabbit out of the same hat.
2009: A TWINS ODYSSEY
Minnesota’s ‘09 season looked like a wash from the early moments, especially when stacking up their record against the other teams in the central division. The then-Cleveland Indians were the only team with a worse record, sitting one game back at 3-7, the White Sox and the Tigers were both sitting at 5-5, and the Kansas City Royals sat on top at 6-4.
Offense was a real issue with the squad, with a team batting average of just .217, well below the league average for the season (.263). But let’s not let the pitching off the hook so easily either. Through those ten games Minnesota’s pitchers averaged an ERA of 5.63 while allowing 9.7 hits per game and throwing a strikeout to walk ratio of about 6:3. All these numbers were worse than the league averages for the year of 4.27, 8.9 and 7:3 for those numbers respectively.
So how do you turn it around? Well, admittedly, a lot of it is getting hot at the right time. Minnesota would win three of their next five games, and five of their next ten. That run came as the Royals only won two of their next five and four of their last ten. In fact, the only team in the Central Division with a better record between games 11 and 20 was the Tigers at 6-4. That streak moved Minnesota up to third in the division with a 9-11 record, just two games behind the top spot (the Tigers again).
Over the next month, the average record of the teams Minnesota faced at the start of their series was 17-16, and across those ten series Minnesota went an average of 1.5-1.5, adding a total of 14 wins and 16 losses to their record.
The Twins would continue this streak, ending the season with a record of 87-76, leading the Central Division. They’d end with .274 batting average – third in the league – while scoring 817 runs and allowing only 765; good for fifth and 19th in the league respectively.
Minnesota’s playoff dream didn’t live for long, the New York Yankees swept them in the first round before going on to win the World Series that year, but somehow, 16 years ago Minnesota was able to snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat. It’s a death-defying stunt they’ll be looking to do again this year.
2025: RUNNING IT BACK
The road, admittedly, will be tougher.
After starting with a worse record of 3-7, Minnesota has since won just two of their last five games and four of their last ten. The good news: they’re somehow not the worst team in the division (hello White Sox, so sorry). The bad news: whereas in ‘09 they were just one game behind the team ahead of them and two games behind the division leader, this year they’re 1.5 games behind the team ahead of them (Royals) and a seemingly-insurmountable six games behind the division leader (it’s the Tigers again. It’s always the Tigers.)
Here’s some more bad news. In 2009, Minnesota had just three players bat below league average. Now (again, as of writing this), they have just one person batting above league-average: Matt Wallner.
Minnesota is throwing just slightly better than the league average in terms of ERA (3.93 to the league’s 4), and they’re 11th in runs allowed, but that likely won’t be enough to push the Twins to the postseason. They gotta get the bats going.
Coming up over the month of May, the current average record of the teams Minnesota will be facing is 12-11.5, with those eight teams averaging an ERA of 4.05. That doesn’t spell fantastic odds for Minnesota’s chances, especially because they’ll need to heat up in May if they want to be playing in the fall, but it could be far worse.
Ultimately, it doesn’t look like playoff baseball is in Minnesota’s future this year. But, you know, just to be safe…
A man can dream.